[SAMPLE ANALYSIS] DUTERTE SECESSION CALL: IMPLICATIONS FOR 2025 MIDTERM ELECTIONS
- Eugenie Huibonhoa
- Aug 8
- 3 min read
(Produced January 2024)
Summary:
Former President Rodrigo Duterte suddenly called for the secession of Mindanao from the rest of the Philippines. His allies have shared their plans to organise a signature campaign to educate the public and garner support for the move.
Background:
Former President Rodrigo Duterte accused President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of engineering a
'people's initiative' for constitutional change to extend his term, allegedly by distributing
cash aid (ayuda) in exchange for signatures. He proposed secession as a better future for Mindanao. Both the Duterte and Marcos camps have since organised competing prayer rallies and movements across the country, deepening the rift of their political alliance.
Impact:
-Re-energizing of separatist armed groups in Mindanao -Greater incentive to leverage social welfare programs for political purposes
-Increased priority of cash aid as an economic strategy will lead to cuts in other gov’t programs
-Early campaigning may narrow the space for alternative or non-administration allied politicians to participate meaningfully in the upcoming 2025 elections
Analysis:
The International Criminal Court (ICC) launched an investigation into former Philippine President Duterte’s War on Drugs for alleged crimes against humanity. Duterte and his allies receive immunity from ICC prosecution because of their political alliance with President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. This protection is jeopardized by the ongoing Marcos- Duterte feud. Duterte’s sudden call for the secession of Mindanao is a maneuver that will secure his protection from prosecution independent of his political ties with the Marcos camp.
Duterte has underscored that the secession of Mindanao will not be achieved through a ‘rebellion’ but through the United Nations. This pronouncement serves to legitimise his efforts to amass general support at this time. Both groups have been actively organising large gatherings of supporters for their respective advocacies which resemble election campaign rallies. Rodrigo Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte is leading the recent 2028 presidential polls. The deepening rivalry between the two most influential political families represents a power struggle. Their political interests rely on their allies’ control of the legislative branch of government which can determine the outcome of the 2028 presidential elections. This has led to the mass mobilisation of funds under legitimate cash aid pro- grams to marshal support and solidify loyalties before the 2025 midterm elections where Filipinos will elect 12 of 24 senators, and congressmen and local officials.
The 2024 national budget for the first time in history earmarked P500 billion for direct cash
assistance for the poor. It includes a newly created P26 billion cash aid program (Ayuda sa Kapos ang Kita/ AKAP) that targets ‘near poor’ families, thereby creating a legal basis for expanding recipients of cash transfer. Inflation remains to be the most pressing issue for Filipinos. The high cost of basic commodities and high rate of unemployment caused by the pandemic increases the reliance and appeal of cash aid to cope with economic conditions. Direct cash transfer is likely to sway voter preference and shift political alliances. The Marcos-Duterte rift will exacerbate the exploitation of institutionalized methods of doling out cash at a massive scale. Additionally, the habitual large-scale realignment of the national budget for ayuda can impact the progress of long-term oriented government programs and further the dependence of typical families on cash aid. The Duterte camp has been highlighting the contrast between the Duterte and Marcos styles of politics, positioning themselves to potentially pivot as "opposition" figures to the administration in future elections. This maneuver could further restrict the space for genuine opposition and reform. Despite this, it does not matter if the Marcos-Duterte alliance crumbles because they are
already actively expanding their respective bases. Unless non-administration allied candidates are able to garner the support of local government units that distribute and control ayuda, the dynamics of the Marcos and Duterte dynasties will likely continue to shape the 2025 midterm and 2028 presidential elections.
Sources:
Duterte mulls PI for Mindanao secession. The Philippine Star:
sion#:~:text=Duterte%20said%20there%20is%20currently,del%20Norte%201st%20District%20Rep
In Philippine Presidential Polls Looking to 2028, Duterte’s Daughter Is Already the Frontrunner.
Marcos to sign ’24 budget with P500-B aid for poor. Inquirer.net: https:// newsinfo.in-
'Open warfare': Philippines' Marcos-Duterte alliance crumbles. Reuters:
bles-2024-02-02/
Philippine inflation remains an 'urgent' concern -finmin. Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/mar-
kets/asia/philippines-inflation-remains-an-urgent-concern-finmin-2024-01-24
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